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The conjunction fallacy and longitudinal development of chance expression. (English)
Truran, John M. et al., Making the difference. , (ISBN 0-9594844-9-2). 380-387 (1999).
Two survey items asking for estimates of probability or frequency of everyday events (A), (B), and their conjunction (A and B), were completed by 2719 school students in grades 5 to 11. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses revealed chance expression improved with grade, but no change in incidence of conjunction errors. Gender differences favouring males occurred for some grades. Comparisons with responses to other probability items indicated incidence of conjunction errors is independent of development of basic chance measurement. (Orig.)
Classification: K53
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