@inbook {MATHEDUC.02336341, author = {Moritz, Jonathan and Watson, Jane}, title = {Reasoning and expressing probability in students' judgements of coin tossing.}, year = {2000}, booktitle = {Mathematics education beyond 2000. Vol. 2. Proceedings}, isbn = {0-9596844-8-4}, pages = {448-455}, publisher = {,}, abstract = {A survey item based on a newspaper article about coin tosses was administered to 1256 students from grades 6 to 11. Few students determined the probability of four successive tails. Most students considered that heads and tails were equally likely for a subsequent fifth toss, often describing the probability as ``50-50''. Students in higher grades were more likely to respond appropriately. Results are discussed with reference to equiprobability, independence, the gambler's fallacy, and the outcome approach to probability.}, msc2010 = {K53xx}, identifier = {2000f.04634}, }