id: 06458026
dt: j
an: 2015e.00816
au: Spiegelhalter, David; Gage, Jenny
ti: What can education learn from real-world communication of risk and
uncertainty?
so: Math. Enthus. 12, No. 1-3, 4-10 (2015).
py: 2015
pu: Information Age Publishing (IAP), Charlotte, NC; University of Montana,
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Missoula, MT
la: EN
cc: K50
ut: stochastics; statistics; probability theory; absolute risks; relative
risks; teaching; natural frequencies; expected frequency; frequency
trees; experiments; conditional probability; communicating
probabilities
ci:
li: http://www.math.umt.edu/tmme/vol12no1thru3/02_Spiegelhalter_and_Gage.pdf
ab: Summary: Probability is a difficult topic to teach, not least because it is
rather unclear what it actually means. Modern risk communication has
tackled general public incomprehension of probability statements by
using the metaphor of ‘expected frequencies’ ‒ for example, “of
100 people like you, we would expect 10 to have a heart attack or
stroke in the next 10 years." We show how these ideas can be taken into
the classroom as the basis for teaching probability, using frequency
tree diagrams as the fundamental representation. Empirical frequency
trees can be used to summarise a series of classroom experiments, and
then expected frequency trees naturally provide a basis for deriving
the rules of probability, and make complex conditional probability
calculations reasonably straightforward.
rv: