id: 06458029
dt: j
an: 2015e.00817
au: Lane, Matt
ti: Worth the risk? Modeling irrational gambling behavior.
so: Math. Enthus. 12, No. 1-3, 31-37 (2015).
py: 2015
pu: Information Age Publishing (IAP), Charlotte, NC; University of Montana,
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Missoula, MT
la: EN
cc: K50 M40 K90
ut: games of chance; mathematical models; expected values; psychology;
stochastics; probability theory; statistics; risk; gambling; roulette;
luck; utility; probability
ci:
li: http://www.math.umt.edu/tmme/vol12no1thru3/04_Adams.pdf
ab: Summary: In math class, expected value is often used when deciding whether
or not a game is worth playing. A common refrain is that games with
negative expected value should be avoided. However, nearly all games of
chance have a negative expected value, and a simple expected value
analysis fails to explain why these games are so popular. In this
article, we consider three psychological factors leading to irrational
gambling behavior ‒ the illusion of control, hypersensitivity to
reward, and beginner’s luck ‒ and explore how these factors affect
an otherwise purely rational model of gambling behavior.
rv: