
06458027
j
2015e.00836
Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.
Probability, justice, and the risk of wrongful conviction.
Math. Enthus. 12, No. 13, 1118 (2015).
2015
Information Age Publishing (IAP), Charlotte, NC; University of Montana, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Missoula, MT
EN
K70
K90
M90
stochastics
probability theory
statistics
legal sciences
probability and justice
weighing of evidence
legal cases
case studies
standard of proof
$p$value
balance of probabilities
beyond a reasonable doubt
risks
hypothesis testing
statistical inference
applied statistics
http://www.math.umt.edu/tmme/vol12no1thru3/03_Rosenthal.pdf
Summary: We consider the issue of standards of proof in legal decisions from the point of view of probability. We compare ``balance of probabilities" and ``beyond a reasonable doubt" to the statistical use of $p$values. We point out various fallacies which sometimes arise in legal reasoning. And we provide several examples of legal cases which involved probabilities, including some in which incorrect decisions were made and defendants were wrongfully convicted.