id: 06458040
dt: j
an: 2015e.00851
au: Brady, Corey; Lesh, Richard
ti: A models and modeling approach to risk and uncertainty.
so: Math. Enthus. 12, No. 1-3, 184-202 (2015).
py: 2015
pu: Information Age Publishing (IAP), Charlotte, NC; University of Montana,
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Missoula, MT
la: EN
cc: M10 K50 K40 K70 K90
ut: risk perception; risk assessment; risk management; concept formation;
theoretical models; research; model-eliciting activities; data
modeling; statistics; probability theory; stochastics; model
development sequences; model adaptation activity; teaching;
simulations; mathematization; problem solving; affective dimensions of
knowledge; uncertainty; probabilistic reasoning
ci:
li: http://www.math.umt.edu/tmme/vol12no1thru3/16_Brady_and_Lesh.pdf
ab: Summary: In this article, we describe potential contributions of a Models
and Modeling Perspective to research focused on learnersâ€™ developing
conceptions about uncertainty and variation. In particular, we show how
a particular class of realistic problem-solving tasks can illuminate
how learners develop models to identify, describe, and predict emergent
patterns of regularity in the behavior of various types of systems and
in the data these systems generate. We begin by situating current
design work in this area with in a larger project to investigate idea
development in the domain of data modeling over extended
(course-length) periods. We give design principles and examples for key
components in our research framework, and we provide illustrative
examples of these components and their interactions around the themes
of distance and measurement that arise centrally in our materials.
Next, we show how our approach can support advances in research on risk
perception and on the development of ideas around risk assessment and
management. Specifically, we identify three key facets of our approach
and materials that make them good candidates for contributing to
risk-oriented design research in education. Within each of these
facets, we suggest research questions that could be addressed, and we
provide examples and conjectures based on prior and ongoing work. In
particular, we return to the ideas of distance explored in our examples
and show connections with important questions in research on
learnersâ€™ perception and reasoning about risk.
rv: