id: 06498206
dt: j
an: 2015f.00876
au: Saenen, Lore; Heyvaert, Mieke; Van Dooren, Wim; Onghena, Patrick
ti: Inhibitory control in a notorious brain teaser: the Monty Hall dilemma.
so: ZDM, Math. Educ. 47, No. 5, 837-848 (2015).
py: 2015
pu: Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg
la: EN
cc: K50 C30 C40 D50
ut: Monty Hall problem; probability; counterintuitive problems; inhibitory
control; problem understanding
ci:
li: doi:10.1007/s11858-015-0667-6
ab: Summary: The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a counterintuitive probability
problem in which participants often use misleading heuristics, such as
the equiprobability bias. Finding the optimal solution to the MHD
requires inhibition of these heuristics. In the current study, we
investigated the relation between participantsâ€™ equiprobability bias
and their MHD performance. Because the equiprobability bias is supposed
to increase with age and statistical education, different age groups
were included. The results showed that in the classic MHD, the
equiprobability bias strongly hindered older participants in solving
the problem and fully understanding it. When more alternatives were
included, both behavioral performance and problem understanding of
older participants improved. The behavioral performance of the younger
participants was less influenced by the equiprobability bias, but these
participants overall failed to gain understanding in the MHD, probably
because of still underdeveloped knowledge of probabilistic situations.
rv: