id: 06140246
dt: a
an: 2013b.00770
au: Jan, Irma; Amit, Miriam
ti: A four phase model for predicting the probabilistic situation of compound
events.
so: Paditz, Ludwig (ed.) et al., Proceedings of the 10th international
conference “Models in Developing Mathematics Education”, Dresden,
Saxony, Germany, September 11‒17, 2009. Dresden: Hochschule für
Technik und Wirtschaft (ISBN 83-919465-9-2). 267-271 (2009).
py: 2009
pu: Dresden: Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft
la: EN
cc: K53 C73 D53 M13
ut: probability; problem-solving strategies
ci:
li:
ab: Summary: This paper presents an innovative construction of a probabilistic
model for predicting chance situations. It describes the construction
of a four phase model, derived from an intense qualitative analysis of
the written responses of 94 mathematically talented middle school
students to the probabilistic compound event problem: “How many
doubles are expected when rolling two dice fifty times?" We found that
the students’ comprehension process of compound event situations can
be broken down into a four phase model: beliefs, subjective
estimations, chance estimations and probabilistic calculations. The
paper focuses on the development of the model over the course of the
experiment, identifying the process the students underwent as they
attempted to answer the question. We explain each phase as it was
reflected in the students’ rationalizations. All phases, including
their definitions and students’ citations, will be presented in the
paper. While not every student necessarily goes through all four
phases, an awareness and understanding of them all allows for
efficient, effective intervention during the learning process. We found
that guidance and learning intervention helped shorten the preliminary
phases, leading to more relative time spent on probabilistic
calculations.
rv: