id: 06664355
dt: j
an: 2016f.01271
au: English, Lyn D.; Watson, Jane M.
ti: Development of probabilistic understanding in fourth grade.
so: J. Res. Math. Educ. 47, No. 1, 28-62 (2016).
py: 2016
pu: National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM), Reston, VA
la: EN
cc: K52 K42 C32
ut: expectation; probability models; relative frequency; statistical literacy;
theoretical probability; variation
ci:
li: doi:10.5951/jresematheduc.47.1.0028
ab: Summary: We analyzed the development of 4th-grade students’ understanding
of the transition from experimental relative frequencies of outcomes to
theoretical probabilities with a focus on the foundational statistical
concepts of variation and expectation. We report students’ initial
and changing expectations of the outcomes of tossing one and two coins,
how they related the relative frequency from their physical and
computer-simulated trials to the theoretical probability, and how they
created and interpreted theoretical probability models. Findings
include students’ progression from an initial apparent
equiprobability bias in predicting outcomes of tossing two coins
through to representing the outcomes of increasing the number of
trials. After observing the decreasing variation from the theoretical
probability as the sample size increased, students developed a deeper
understanding of the relationship between relative frequency of
outcomes and theoretical probability as well as their respective
associations with variation and expectation. Students’ final models
indicated increasing levels of probabilistic understanding.
rv: