
05878579
j
2011c.00765
Konold, Cliff
Madden, Sandra
Pollatsek, Alexander
Pfannkuch, Maxine
Wild, Chris
Ziedins, Ilze
Finzer, William
Horton, Nicholas J.
Kazak, Sibel
Conceptual challenges in coordinating theoretical and datacentered estimates of probability.
Math. Think. Learn. 13, No. 12, 6886 (2011).
2011
Taylor \& Francis (Routledge), Philadelphia, PA
EN
K53
K73
C33
probability
statistical inference
mathematics curriculum
abstract reasoning
grade 8
middle school students
concept formation
doi:10.1080/10986065.2011.538299
http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&id=doi:10.1080/10986065.2011.538299
Summary: A core component of informal statistical inference is the recognition that judgments based on sample data are inherently uncertain. This implies that instruction aimed at developing informal inference needs to foster basic probabilistic reasoning. In this article, we analyze and critique the nowcommon practice of introducing students to both "theoretical" and "experimental" probability, typically with the hope that students will come to see the latter as converging on the former as the number of observations grows. On the surface of it, this approach would seem to fit well with objectives in teaching informal inference. However, our indepth analysis of one eighthgrader's reasoning about experimental and theoretical probabilities points to various pitfalls in this approach. We offer tentative recommendations about how some of these issues might be addressed. (Contains 15 footnotes and 2 figures.) (ERIC)