id: 05878579
dt: j
an: 2011c.00765
au: Konold, Cliff; Madden, Sandra; Pollatsek, Alexander; Pfannkuch, Maxine;
Wild, Chris; Ziedins, Ilze; Finzer, William; Horton, Nicholas J.;
Kazak, Sibel
ti: Conceptual challenges in coordinating theoretical and data-centered
estimates of probability.
so: Math. Think. Learn. 13, No. 1-2, 68-86 (2011).
py: 2011
pu: Taylor \& Francis (Routledge), Philadelphia, PA
la: EN
cc: K53 K73 C33
ut: probability; statistical inference; mathematics curriculum; abstract
reasoning; grade 8; middle school students; concept formation
ci:
li: doi:10.1080/10986065.2011.538299
http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&id=doi:10.1080/10986065.2011.538299
ab: Summary: A core component of informal statistical inference is the
recognition that judgments based on sample data are inherently
uncertain. This implies that instruction aimed at developing informal
inference needs to foster basic probabilistic reasoning. In this
article, we analyze and critique the now-common practice of introducing
students to both "theoretical" and "experimental" probability,
typically with the hope that students will come to see the latter as
converging on the former as the number of observations grows. On the
surface of it, this approach would seem to fit well with objectives in
teaching informal inference. However, our in-depth analysis of one
eighth-graderâ€™s reasoning about experimental and theoretical
probabilities points to various pitfalls in this approach. We offer
tentative recommendations about how some of these issues might be
addressed. (Contains 15 footnotes and 2 figures.) (ERIC)
rv: