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Zbl 0954.62529
de la Horra, Julian; Rodriguez-Bernal, Maria Teresa
Asymptotic behaviour of the posterior predictive $p$-value.
(English)
[J] Commun. Stat., Theory Methods 26, No.11, 2689-2699 (1997). ISSN 0361-0926; ISSN 1532-415X/e

Summary: The posterior predictive $p$-value is a Bayesian-motivated alternative to the classical concept of $p$-value. This paper is devoted to study its asymptotic behaviour. Under mild assumptions, it is proved that: a) When $\theta^*$, the true value of the parameter belongs to the null hypothesis, the distribution of the posterior predictive $p$-value converges to the uniform distribution over the interval $(0,1)$. b) When $\theta^*$ does not belong to the null hypothesis, the posterior predictive $p$-value converges almost surely to zero.
MSC 2000:
*62F15 Bayesian inference

Keywords: $p$-value; posterior predictive $p$-value; discrepancy variable; asymptotic behaviour; goodness of fit

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Scientific prize winners of the ICM 2010
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