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Zbl 1161.91472
Xiao, Zhi; Gong, Ke; Zou, Yan
A combined forecasting approach based on fuzzy soft sets. (English)
[J] J. Comput. Appl. Math. 228, No. 1, 326-333 (2009). ISSN 0377-0427

Summary: Forecasting the export and import volume in international trade is the prerequisite of a government's policy-making and guidance for a healthier international trade development. However, an individual forecast may not always perform satisfactorily, while combination of forecasts may result in a better forecast than component forecasts. We believe the component forecasts employed in combined forecasts are a description of the actual time series, which is fuzzy. This paper attempts to use forecasting accuracy as the criterion of fuzzy membership function, and proposes a combined forecasting approach based on fuzzy soft sets. This paper also examines the method with data of international trade from 1993 to 2006 in the Chongqing Municipality of China and compares it with a combined forecasting approach based on rough sets and each individual forecast. The experimental results show that the combined approach provided in this paper improves the forecasting performance of each individual forecast and is free from a rough sets approach's restrictions as well. It is a promising forecasting approach and a new application of soft sets theory.

MSC 2000:: *91B84 Economic time series analysis
90C70 Fuzzy programming
62M10 Time series, etc. (statistics)

Keywords: combined forecasting; fuzzy soft sets; soft sets; time series; rough sets

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