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Zbl 0995.68007
Billings, Lora; Spears, William M.; Schwartz, Ira B.
A unified prediction of computer virus spread in connected networks. (English)
[J] Phys. Lett., A 297, No.3-4, 261-266 (2002). ISSN 0375-9601

Summary: We derive two models of viral epidemiology on connected networks and compare results to simulations. The differential equation model easily predicts the expected long term behavior by defining a boundary between survival and extinction regions. The discrete Markov model captures the short term behavior dependent on initial conditions, providing extinction probabilities and the fluctuations around the expected behavior. These analysis techniques provide new insight on the persistence of computer viruses and what strategies should be devised for their control.

MSC 2000:: *68M15 Reliability and testing of computer systems

Keywords: viral epidemiology; differential equation model; discrete Markov model

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Zentralblatt MATH Berlin [Germany]