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Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, probability and constitutions: at the intersection of the Scottish, American, and French enlightenments. (English) Zbl 1216.01003

The paper is a description of early (end 18th century) connections between social sciences, politics and economics with probability and statistics. The introduction describes the historical situation and some ideas from social sciences at the end of the 18th century, as well as the development of first demographical tables. Then the author gives biographical details on Thomas Jefferson, in particular his stay at Paris 1784–1789 and how his views were formed by influences of the French and Scottish Enlightment. The main part of the paper is devoted to a description of the main ideas and representatives of the Scottish Enlightment (D. Hume, A. Smith and others), that had a large influence on James Madison (who stayed in correspondence with Jefferson during his stay in Paris), and the corresponding French influences on Jefferson, especially his connection with Marquis de Condorcet. In particular, some of Jefferson’s writings that show how Jefferson understood Condorcet’s probabilistic/statistical ideas in political/social context are quoted. The paper gives a good idea how society and politics interact with mathematics.

MSC:

01A50 History of mathematics in the 18th century
60-03 History of probability theory
62-03 History of statistics
91-03 History of game theory, economics, and finance
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