@article {IOPORT.03924654, author = {Ivakhnenko, A.G. and Sarychev, A.P.}, title = {Self-organization of dynamic models with periodic coefficients applied to prediction of solar activity.}, year = {1985}, journal = {Soviet Journal of Automation and Information Sciences}, volume = {18}, number = {1}, issn = {0882-570X}, pages = {33-37}, publisher = {Scripta Technica, Inc., New York}, abstract = {Summary: The example of solar activity is used to examine self-organization of long-range prediction of time series which are natural oscillatory processes. At the first stage of the procedure one uses a multilayer nonlinear harmonic GMDH algorithm to synthesize a dynamical difference model with periodic coefficients. At the second stage, a prediction is synthesized from the last observations of the time series in the form of a sum of harmonics with the supplementary condition that on the prediction interval the prediction must best satisfy the dynamical model. Testing on an examinational sample indicates good predicting capability of the scheme.}, identifier = {03924654}, }